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 Tuesday June 26, 2007

- Press Release - UNIFIL Attacked, Spanish Killed 

U.N. peacekeepers inspect a vehicle hit by an explosion in Khiyam village in south Lebanon June 24, 2007. (Ali Hashisho/Reuters)

Map locating the UNIFIL deployment zone in southern Lebanon where six UN peacekeepers were killed by a car bomb.(AFP graphic)

A U.N. peacekeeper watches as a damaged U.N. Spanish vehicle is removed from the area of an explosion in Khiyam village, southern Lebanon, June 25, 2007. U.N. peacekeepers will pursue their mission in south Lebanon despite a car bomb attack that killed six members of a Spanish battalion, the UNIFIL force's commander said on Monday. REUTERS/Karamallah Daher (LEBANON)

Lebanese soldiers stand guard as a damaged Spanish U.N. vehicle is removed from the area of an explosion in Khiyam village in south Lebanon June 25, 2007. U.N. peacekeepers will pursue their mission in south Lebanon despite a car bomb attack that killed six members of a Spanish battalion, the UNIFIL force's commander said on Monday. REUTERS/Karamallah Daher (LEBANON)

U.N. peacekeepers inspect a vehicle hit by an explosion on Sunday, in Khiyam village in south Lebanon June 25, 2007. (Karamallah Daher/Reuters)

 The Lebanese army has halted its operations against Fatah al-Islam militants in the refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared, but will continue besieging them until they surrender, Defense Minister Elias Murr said on Thursday.
"The military operations in Nahr al-Bared camp have ended, but the camp will remain encircled until the total surrender of Fatah al-Islam," Murr told LBCI TV’s Kalam al-Nass talk show.
Arab League Secretary General Arab Moussa held lengthy midnight talks with Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah that were followed by a separate meeting with MP Saad Hariri at daybreak Friday.

Lebanon, Gaza, the Broader Syro-Iranian Offensive
Walid Phares

The latest dramatic military and terror events in Gaza and Lebanon can be viewed from a regional geopolitical perspective: A Syro-Iranian axis offensive on its (their) primarily western front stretching along the Mediterranean coast.

In previous analyses I have argued that the Tehran-Damascus axis is involved in a regional campaign to seize as much physical terrain and score as many victories across the Middle East in order to consolidate their strategic posture before 2008; the year they believe Americans will limit – perhaps diminish — their moves because of the U.S. presidential campaign season.

Iran's and Syria's offensives have been well-coordinated on battlefields across the Levant since last January, with a clear escalation since early spring.

Following are the main fronts:

Eastern Front: There have been multiple reports and much evidence of arming and supplying neo-Taliban and other Jihadi forces in Afghanistan in order that they may engage U.S.-led NATO forces and provoke chaos across the country.

Central Front: The axis has intensified its actions against U.S. and coalition forces, as wells as Iraqi civilians in an attempt to create more sectarian tension, with the greater objective of disrupting “surge” operations in particular, and generally eroding U.S. and allied efforts in Iraq.

Western Front: The axis has unleashed two blitzkrieg-like offensives — one on the upper western front (Lebanon). The other within the lower western front (Gaza).

1. In Lebanon, the Tehran-Damascus axis has had as its goals to crumble the Seniora Government, cripple the Lebanese Army, and crush the Cedars Revolution. To accomplish these, two approaches have been taken:
 
a) Terrorism: The assassination of MP Walid Eido in Beirut, other bombing attacks including car-bombs targeting and killing civilians.

b) Fatah al Islam attacks against the Lebanese Army in Nahr al bared and Tripoli in the north.

In Lebanon, the axis is expected to launch more terror attacks. We are looking at all Syro-Iranian assets in Lebanon, monitoring which ones will be deployed to battle next, and when.

2. The axis has also been involved in Gaza where they surprised observers with their decision to throw Hamas fully against Fatah and the PA in the enclave. The plan to seize control of Gaza was projected a long time ago. But the timing was at the discretion of the Syro-Iranian war room, which funds and strategically controls Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

The heavy fighting in Gaza represents an important decision made by the regional masters: The acceleration of the axis offensive so that by the end of summer, four battlefields will be fully ignited against the U.S., its allies and regional democracies: Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza (Palestinian territories). But just as important is the fact that an entire Taliban-like zone has been established on the eastern Mediterranean under Hamas control and with Syro-Iranian backing. Our expectations are that, short of a large-scale counter-operation aimed at dislodging the "coup" in the enclave, the area will become a massive terror base of operations.

In the final analysis, the axis' offensive on their western front is peaking. The immediate goal of the axis is to protect the Syrian regime’s western (Lebanon) flank and southern (Israel) flank.

Thrusting in Lebanon and spreading chaos, also would potentially shield Bashar al Assad from the upcoming UN investigation into the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (and others).

Seizing Gaza would, in their estimation, curtail U.S. efforts in Iraq, and pressure Israel away from Syria and Hezbollah. The Jihadi strategic mind is in its full offensive mode in the region.

Dr Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the author of The War of Ideas

 Thursday June 21, 2007

A meeting grouping Lebanese leaders scheduled to be held in Paris next week could take place in mid-July, the French foreign ministry said Thursday.Naharnet

A third US carrier, the nuclear-powered USS Enterprise Strike Group is speeding towards the Persian Gulf
June 21, 2007

The USS Enterprise CVN 65-Big E Strike Group, the US Navy’s largest air carrier, will join the USS Stennis and the USS Nimitz carriers, building up the largest sea, air, marine concentration the United States has ever deployed opposite Iran.

This goes towards making good on the assurances of four carriers US Vice President Dick Cheney offered the Gulf and Middle East nations during his May tour of the region.

Washington is considering deploying the fourth US carrier for the region in the Red Sea opposite Saudi Arabian western coast to secure the three US carriers in the Gulf from the rear as well as the Gulf of Aqaba and Suez Canal.

From Debkafile

According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, the US naval build-up off the shores of Iran marks rising military tensions in the region, accentuated by last week’s Hamas victory which has endowed Iran with a military foothold on Israel’s southwestern border.

The USS Enterprise CVN 65-Big E Strike Group, the US Navy’s largest air carrier, will join the USS Stennis and the USS Nimitz carriers, building up the largest sea, air, marine concentration the United States has ever deployed opposite Iran. This goes towards making good on the assurances of four carriers US Vice President Dick Cheney offered the Gulf and Middle East nations during his May tour of the region.

The “Big E” leads a strike group consisting of the guided-missile destroyers USS Arleigh Burke DDG 51, USS Stout DDG 55, Forrest Sherman DDG 98 and USS James E. Williams DDG 95, as well as the guided missile cruiser USS Gettysburg CG 64, the SS Philadelphia SSN 690 nuclear submarine and the USNS Supply T-AOE 6>

On its decks are the Carrier Air Wing CVW 1, whose pilots fought combat missions in the Gulf and Arabian Sea during 2006. The Air Wing is made up of F/Q-18 Super Hornet strike craft, the Sidewinders Strike Fighter Squadron VFA-86, the 251st Marine Fighter Attack Squadron MFA, and the Electronic Attack Squadron VAQ 137.

The 32nd Sea Control Squadron VS consists of S-3B Vikings. The Airborne Early Warning Squadron VAQ 3 flies E-2C Hawkeye craft. The Fleet Logistics Support Squadron VRC is based on C-2A Greyhounds.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report Washington is considering deploying the fourth US carrier for the region in the Red Sea opposite Saudi Arabian western coast to secure the three US carriers in the Gulf from the rear as well as the Gulf of Aqaba and Suez Canal.

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Rice to discuss Lebanese crisis during Paris visit

US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice will head for the French capital Monday to discuss the situation in Lebanon "thoroughly," An-Nahar newspaper reported Wednesday.
 
Discussions will also focus on ways to deal with Iran, in terms of its nuclear program and its regional role, particularly its influence in Lebanon because of its strong relationship with Hizbullah," the report added.
A number of Lebanese leaders are also due to visit Paris before the end of the month regarding the initiative put forward by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to rebuild trust between Lebanon's rival political factions, the Central News Agency (CNA) said Tuesday.

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Abbas accuses Damascus-based Hamas’ Khaled Meshaal of complicity in a plot to assassinate him. Hamas hurls counter-charge
June 20, 2007, 9:08 PM (GMT+02:00)

In a televised speech Wednesday, Abbas referred to the planting last month of 250 kg of explosives in a tunnel under a road traveled by his convoy. He said he had sent to every Arab government video tapes of Hamas operatives filmed in the act. The Palestinian leader ruled out dialogue with the “murderous” Hamas movement and cancelled their passports and citizenship.

Hamas spread word in Gaza claiming to possess secret documents allegedly showing Fatah officers whom Israeli intelligence was said to have sent for training in Pakistan as cover for missions to bring back photographs of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. Debkafile
 
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